The Portland-based Davis, Hibbitts & Midghall (9/11-14, registered voters):
Jeff Merkley (D): 39
Gordon Smith (R-inc): 42
Dave Brownlow (C): 4
Undecided: 16
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Here is the money shot:
More than half of Oregon voters viewed Smith favorably as recently as a year ago, but now that’s down to one-third of the voters, less than those who view him unfavorably. Only 53 percent of Republicans view him favorably – lower than President Bush’s 65 percent approval rating among Oregon Republicans.
A Rasmussen poll released yesterday gave Smith a 1-point lead, and a Merkley internal poll from last week showed the incumbent trailing by three points.
Things are just not looking up for El Gordo.
SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.
UPDATE by Crisitunity: I didn’t immediately grasp the magnitude when seeing “one-third” written out, so remember: Smith’s overall favorable rating is 33%. Let that sink in for a while: 33%. (Also worth noting, via the Oregonian‘s story on this poll: the original numbers released for the poll, which didn’t account for pushing leaners, were Smith up by only 1: 37-36.)
If there was any confusion about the pollster, Tim Hibbitts (who’s little known outside Oregon, but is considered the gold standard within the state), this is an independent poll commissioned by the local Fox TV affiliate, not an internal.
Smith’s move to the center seems to have hurt his favorability ratings among Republicans, but I suspect they’ll still hold their noses and vote for him anyway. Fortunately, however, it doesn’t seem the independants are buying Smith’s attempt to distance himself from his party. I’d rather the DSCC spend extra money here than any of the long shot races where we’re still polling double digits behind (KY, GA, TX, NE, ID, KS).
I’m getting more and more optimistic everyday that Smith won’t be able to get his way out of this one. I think he may end up losing because so many hardcore conservatives simply pass him up on the ballot out of principle.
I’ve seen so many attack ads against Merkley so many times that if I had not seen any polls I would assume he would be behind by at least 15%. But when he is behind by 1-2% its a clear sign that all those attack ads aren’t helping enough.
The negative ads have not been good on either side and I would rather see the ones that are running on the positive that Senator Smith has done during his time in DC.
He has worked hard to stop serious cuts to many of Oregon’s programs such as the Oregon Health Plan, health care services for uninsured children in school and programs that care for the elderly and disabled.
Looking at the good he has done during his years in DC should be more important than the ads that are being blasted on TV. We need Senator Smith to continue to fight for us and he is not afraid to stand up to do so for Oregonians.